How much oil does the world need?

By Gerry Warner
Cranbrook Daily Townsman
About 150 years ago, the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy wrote a short story entitled; “How Much Land Does a Man Need?” It was a story about a poor country peasant named, Pahom, who in his lust for land loses everything.
Could one be forgiven for wondering if Tolstoy was alive today and penned a new novel it might by titled; “How Much Oil Does the World Need?
Hopefully, by this time Friday, British Petroleum (BP) will have succeeded in plugging the Great Gulf of Mexico Oil Gusher that has been fouling the Gulf and hundreds of miles of Louisiana coastline for the past month. Ever since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April, the open undersea well has been spewing 5,000 barrels-a-day of sticky crude in the Gulf, killing 11 oil workers and endangering tens of thousands of animals including shoreline species, birds, fish and other marine life.
So how much oil does the world need?
Glad you asked. As a matter of fact, the world uses approximately 88 million barrels of oil a day now – one third of that consumed by the USA and China alone– and even that appears not to be enough. Just prior to the Deepwater Horizon exploding, U.S. President Obama had given the green light for more off-shore drilling. And we all remember the siren call months ago of Tea Party wacko and potential presidential candidate – God help us – Sarah Palin of “drill baby drill.”
Maybe the Mayan Calendar is right. The world is going to end in 2012. Anyone got a used hybrid for sale? Cheap!
But seriously, as that sheen of oil washes up on the Louisiana Coast, you’ve got to wonder if our oil culture is any longer sustainable? Given the gargantuan amounts of oil we use every day for fuel, transportation and heating not to mention the humongous amounts of crude that are used to make plastics, clothing and hundreds of other products is it realistic to think this Golden Goose can keep laying eggs forever?
What about the proponents of peak oil and their predictions that we may have already used up our supply of cheap, accessible oil and the black gold that’s left is going to get more expensive with each passing year? Think about that the next time you fill up at $1.07 for regular while the international market price of oil has fallen below $70-a-barrel. It doesn’t make sense. It never has.
So what does an ordinary schmuck do facing odds like this? Buy a hybrid? Fine, if you can afford it. Take a bus to work? Not a bad idea, but not many people are doing it in Cranbrook. Ride a bicycle or walk to work? Great idea from a health and fitness point of view but again not entirely practical in Cranbrook.
When I last lived in Kimberley and gas hit $1.40-a-litre (that’s about $6-a-gallon and close to $100 to fill the tank) I started to take the IHA “Health Connections Bus” to work because at $5-a-pop round trip between Cranbrook and Kimberley it was a lot cheaper than driving my small (I should be ashamed of trying to hide behind that adjective) SUV to work every day. But the IHA bus was only twice-a-week and my family and I finally settled the issue by moving to Cranbrook.
But getting back to peak oil, the Pacific Institute in California says the U.S. passed its peak water supply level in 1970 and clean, accessible water has become more expensive ever since. But when you’re talking oil, the rise in price is expected to be much quicker and more extreme than water.
According to M. King Hubbert, who created the first computer models for peak oil, the aggregate production rate of an oil field goes up exponentially until the supply peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. No one knows for sure how rapid the decline will be, but considering the great thirst modern industrial civilization has for oil there’s good reason to believe the decline could be dramatic.
We may have passed the peak oil point already or it may be 30 years hence – most experts don’t see it any further away – but wherever that point is it’s going to change our civilization like it’s never been changed before.
Are we ready for this?
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